
Elaine Luria
October 18, 2026 · Newsletter
2010. 2018. 2022. 2026?
I need to show you a pattern.
2010: Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District flips from blue to red. Republicans take the House majority.
2018: Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District flips from red to blue. Democrats take the House majority.
2022: Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District flips from blue to red. Republicans take the House majority.
Three flips in 12 years. The House followed every single time.
2026: Cook Political Report rates VA-02 a dead-even Toss-Up. The polls have me and my opponent tied. Every major election analyst in the country is watching this race because they know the pattern is going to hold.
This is not only a battle for Virginia’s 2nd District. This is a battle for the House of Representatives.
I served on the January 6th Committee because it was right, and I knew it might cost me my seat. It did. I lost in 2022 after far-right groups spent over $6 million against me.
This year, MAGA spending has already topped $8 million.
I’m not telling you this race is critical just because I’m running in it. I’m telling you because the numbers have said it three times in 12 years, and they’re about to say it a fourth.
One thing I know: this district doesn’t hand out landslides. It hands out squeakers, and squeakers are won by whoever works the hardest in the final weeks.



Gratefully,
Elaine Luria